what can derail obama's win of the US presidency?

we are 3 weeks away from the actual election - in a presidential campaign where anything can happen in a day, that is an eternity.

the point of view that obama will win the election is based on the trending as it appears as of today. some pollsters are saying obama's lead are solid, with very little changes occurring. while poll results may change day to day depending on what has happened just before the poll has been taken, my jurasic estimation is that this will continue to an uptrend.

the other major part of this point of view is based on the marketing and communication strategies and approaches both campaigns have employed. they are political moves or decisions to the campaigns, but to me as a marketer, i view them as marketing and communication strategies and tactics. those are the things i am reading mostly and the basis for the point of view that obama will win.

more on the above next in WAWAM!

for now, let me just enumerate a few things that might derail obama winning the US elections:

• catastrophic blunder - the uptrend on obama to me seem to be on a constant uptrend. what can derail that is any one catastrophic blunder from obama from now until election time. i don't know what that is, but for the trend to change course in a dramatic way that it will favor mccain, it will take one huge blunder on the part of obama. if obama stays the course and stays "clean" for the next 3 weeks, then obama's lead will grow and will ensure election in 3 week's time. obama should take lessons from john kerry on this one.
• race card - the fact is obama is an african-american, the first black presidential candidate of both parties. that in itself is already historical. mccain's campaign is getting nowhere, it not only has lost steam, it really was unable to reach any level of any meaningful threat to obama. depends on how desperate mccain may feel, but if it's crunch time, mccain may look for a hail mary pass and that can be the race card. the republican voter base are conservatives and middle america who may still be moved by the race card. the only problem there is its really hard to determine the impact the race card will have. will it take voters away from obama or will it backfire against mccain.
• US economy miraculously recovers - we don't think this will happen in the next 3 weeks. not even in the next 3 months. even the next 3 years is not a sure thing. the US economy on a tail spin seem to be favoring obama. more problems on the US economy seem to push more voters towards obama. mccain's chance on winning this election is therefore hinged on the US economy recovering to the tune of an economic miracle within 21 days.
• complacency - having it your way - the mccain campaign has already started the mud slinging strategy. when it got too hot, the obama campaign answered them. but on the whole, the obama campaign has ignored a lot of it. the obama campaign should continue this strategy of largely ignoring the mud and the negatives and being selective in what to answer strongly. they should not allow anything to get too out of hand.
• 3rd debate blow-out or break-out - this 3rd debate is important for both campaigns. we think the point of no return will be reached a few days after the 3rd debate. both candidates will need to avoid blunders in this 3rd debate. it is however easier for obama - at minimum obama simply needs to do more of the same. it is tougher for mccain because he needs to do try harder and be more aggressive. the window for errors is wider for mccain than for obama. if obama does not do a blow-out, he will be fine. but mccain needs to do a fantastic break-out to change the poll numbers to his favor.

compared to the marketing of brands, the marketing of presidential candidates is a much more volatile one. changes can occur often and from anywhere. also, compared to presidential campaigns, the marketing of brands seem to be on slow motion. but the marketing principles and what moves preferences are the same for both.

brands and presidential candidates both have brand equities. both use marketing and communication. one important difference though - once elected, voters are stuck with that presidential candidate for 4 years while consumers may see improvements or changes in their brands as quick as once a year.

more on this next in WAWAM!